Saturday, May 02, 2020

Competence matters

I expected a Trump administration to kill a lot of people, but I thought it would be by repealing the Affordable Care Act and putting a fig-leaf (or even nothing) in its place. Or perhaps starting the war with Iran that the Republicans have been wanting all this time. I still think the person who deserves the Nobel Peace Prize is whoever convinced Trump that Obama intended to go to war with North Korea, thereby guaranteeing that Trump would avoid doing that if it was at all possible. The Republicans have done a lot of damage to the Affordable Care Act and are trying to do more; but they couldn't summon the nerve to actually just throw it out. Trump seemed to be trying to get a war with Iran (maybe just in time for November?).

And then... this happened. A pandemic seems tailor made for Trump. A noted germophobe, and someone who would just love closing borders. If he'd acted sooner and done things that would have fit right into his agenda, he would now be looking like a genius. He had the information in time; US intelligence gave warnings long before a lockdown would have worked.

I underestimated the degree to which the Trump administration has destroyed the capacity of the US government to wield expertise and get things done. My hope was that Trump would spend his term playing golf and bloviating about how wonderful things were. But his combination of ignorance and pride means anybody competent who works for him must talk nonsense or get fired. And it turns out that a competent government is important.

I have been thinking a lot about this quote from George Orwell's essay "In Front Of Your Nose":
The point is that we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.

Trump has bumped into reality, and the United States is paying the price. In six months we get the chance to express our disapproval, and we need to take it.

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