I've been really enjoying the Republican primaries this year. This is not because I like any of the candidates; the only reason I would vote for any of them is to stop one of the others from getting anywhere near the presidency. No, the reason I'm enjoying them is because the Republican party likes its front runners even less than I do.
The reason that's entertaining is because the GOP deserve it. They've spent my entire life (and probably longer) courting the kind of voters they have now, and telling them that they're right to be angry and resentful and that everything is going to hell (often literally). Along comes a superstimulus like Trump or Cruz, and they'll vote for that instead of the "proper" candidates like JEB.
The establishment dislikes Trump because he's a loose cannon, and they dislike Cruz because they've spent the last three years trying to work with him. But between them they represent a bigger and better version of the voodoo economics and social hatefulness that the GOP has come to represent. They have sown the wind; they are reaping the whirlwind.
Something that enjoyable never comes without cost, however. At the end of the day, somebody will get the nomination. It's the end of eight years of Obama presidency, and that usually means a change of parties. So whoever gets the nomination has an excellent shot at becoming president.
It is still possible that Marco Rubio will save them, even after they chewed up and spat out his attempt at immigration reform. But that will not be easy, since Trump and Cruz between them currently have more than 50% of the opinion polls. Rubio would need to grab almost all of the remaining support as the other candidates fall away, and then rely on a few winner-take-all contests to turn a plurality into a majority. The next few weeks are crucial.
The one saving grace for the GOP is that Trump didn't just steal oxygen from the crackpot wing of the party; he stole it from everyone. He's not given anyone a chance to try to out-extreme him even if they wanted to. If he is finally overtaken, the winner won't have an especially horrid series of debate quotes that the Democrats can replay; instead he'll be the guy that took on Trump and won.
I like to think that the US electorate is smarter than to elect Trump or Cruz; that it will elect whoever the Democrats put up if that's the choice. But I didn't think Trump would come close to the nomination, either. So while I'm laughing at the GOP, I'll still be worrying.
The reason that's entertaining is because the GOP deserve it. They've spent my entire life (and probably longer) courting the kind of voters they have now, and telling them that they're right to be angry and resentful and that everything is going to hell (often literally). Along comes a superstimulus like Trump or Cruz, and they'll vote for that instead of the "proper" candidates like JEB.
The establishment dislikes Trump because he's a loose cannon, and they dislike Cruz because they've spent the last three years trying to work with him. But between them they represent a bigger and better version of the voodoo economics and social hatefulness that the GOP has come to represent. They have sown the wind; they are reaping the whirlwind.
Something that enjoyable never comes without cost, however. At the end of the day, somebody will get the nomination. It's the end of eight years of Obama presidency, and that usually means a change of parties. So whoever gets the nomination has an excellent shot at becoming president.
It is still possible that Marco Rubio will save them, even after they chewed up and spat out his attempt at immigration reform. But that will not be easy, since Trump and Cruz between them currently have more than 50% of the opinion polls. Rubio would need to grab almost all of the remaining support as the other candidates fall away, and then rely on a few winner-take-all contests to turn a plurality into a majority. The next few weeks are crucial.
The one saving grace for the GOP is that Trump didn't just steal oxygen from the crackpot wing of the party; he stole it from everyone. He's not given anyone a chance to try to out-extreme him even if they wanted to. If he is finally overtaken, the winner won't have an especially horrid series of debate quotes that the Democrats can replay; instead he'll be the guy that took on Trump and won.
I like to think that the US electorate is smarter than to elect Trump or Cruz; that it will elect whoever the Democrats put up if that's the choice. But I didn't think Trump would come close to the nomination, either. So while I'm laughing at the GOP, I'll still be worrying.
