Well, Donald Trump doesn't seem to have had the effect I was suggesting. Instead of sucking the oxygen away from the other simplistic blowhards, he's sucking it away from what I will call - for want of a better word - the serious candidates.
I can't say I will mourn if Jeb Bush gets knocked out of the race; what would it say about the US if we cannot find a better candidate in 300 million people than yet another Bush?
But so far it looks like we will see a re-run of 2012; with a parade of temporary front-runners while the Republican party tries to find someone better than the default candidate. Only this time the default candidate is Donald Trump instead of Mitt Romney. Exhibit A: Ben Carson.
Ben Carson is apparently a sincere creationist, as opposed to a Republican candidate throwing some red meat to the base. This suggests a problem assimilating evidence that doesn't fit his preconceived ideas, which is not something I want in a president. But he's firmed that impression up enormously by proposing a flat tax.
A flat tax is one of those superficially appealing ideas that get thrown up by well-meaning amateurs with no access to decent economic advice. The problem with it is that you need to get the rate right - too high and you tax low-income earners into bankruptcy, too low and you don't have enough money to run a government. In a modern democracy like the US, there's a pretty broad sweet spot where you can do both.
So Carson will need to convince a lot of low income earners to vote themselves into the poorhouse; or he will need to convince at least half the country that the devastating cuts he will need to inflict will only hurt other people who deserve it. Or he will need to convince enough people that two plus two is at least seventeen, and a bit more once the economy takes off as a result.
The good news is that none of the populist politicians who has come up with this wonderful idea has yet managed to sell it. I don't know whether Carson is dumb enough to think it's a good idea or dumb enough to think he can sell it; but he will not be the nominee.
If we end up with Trump or someone crazier than him, then the Republican party is in real trouble.
I can't say I will mourn if Jeb Bush gets knocked out of the race; what would it say about the US if we cannot find a better candidate in 300 million people than yet another Bush?
But so far it looks like we will see a re-run of 2012; with a parade of temporary front-runners while the Republican party tries to find someone better than the default candidate. Only this time the default candidate is Donald Trump instead of Mitt Romney. Exhibit A: Ben Carson.
Ben Carson is apparently a sincere creationist, as opposed to a Republican candidate throwing some red meat to the base. This suggests a problem assimilating evidence that doesn't fit his preconceived ideas, which is not something I want in a president. But he's firmed that impression up enormously by proposing a flat tax.
A flat tax is one of those superficially appealing ideas that get thrown up by well-meaning amateurs with no access to decent economic advice. The problem with it is that you need to get the rate right - too high and you tax low-income earners into bankruptcy, too low and you don't have enough money to run a government. In a modern democracy like the US, there's a pretty broad sweet spot where you can do both.
So Carson will need to convince a lot of low income earners to vote themselves into the poorhouse; or he will need to convince at least half the country that the devastating cuts he will need to inflict will only hurt other people who deserve it. Or he will need to convince enough people that two plus two is at least seventeen, and a bit more once the economy takes off as a result.
The good news is that none of the populist politicians who has come up with this wonderful idea has yet managed to sell it. I don't know whether Carson is dumb enough to think it's a good idea or dumb enough to think he can sell it; but he will not be the nominee.
If we end up with Trump or someone crazier than him, then the Republican party is in real trouble.
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