Friday, September 30, 2011

Conspiracy Du Jour

A few years ago there was some kind of internet award running, and PZ Myers and Phil Plait were both in the running for it, along with a bunch of other sites. PZ started up a big song and dance about how much more deserving he was and how everyone should vote for him, and soon there was quite a contest going. PZ eventually won by a small margin, but the interesting things was that the two of them completely streeted the field. No-one else was close. People love the controversy.
This occurred to me recently when I was reflecting on the current fuss over gay marriage. When I was younger marriage was supposed to be in decline; marriage rates were falling, divorce rates were rising, more people were cohabiting. Marriage was supposed to be a relic of the past. Now one of the arguments I frequently hear is that countries that have legalized gay marriage have seen rising rates of marriage generally - far from seeing straight marriage destroyed.
What if it's deliberate? I imagine a small cabal of Christians and Gay activists meeting in the nineties to discuss a campaign. "We'll make a huge fuss about marriage. Christians, you do everything you can to keep the Gays out. Gays, do everything you can to get in. Christians, you might lose the battle but you'll win the war (and soon enough everyone will forget you even lost) - Gays, you get to fight for widespread public acceptance on grounds that are entirely respectable."
The best part about this for the Christian side is that the fundamentalist nutters can be let off the leash - in fact, the more intemperate the better. The most ridiculous arguments will bring in people from both sides to an ever-growing public issue, and ensure that even if gay marriage is legalized, the fight will continue for a long time afterwards. The best part for Gays is that the focus is on aspirations that in themselves are admirable from everyone's point of view.
The only ones marginalized are those who are anti-marriage.
Like all good conspiracy theories its chief failing is the difficulty of keeping a secret shared by so many people; although in this case the conspirators would have no trouble (on both sides) whipping up supporters without telling them anything. And, of course, the attribution of foresight, intelligence and cooperation to groups of people who show scant evidence of it.

Actually, I kind of wish it were true; it would raise my opinion of a great many people on the Christian side of the debate, and make me worry less for the future. And such a brilliant piece of social engineering! The alternative is that so many people really mean the tripe they spout, and that really is depressing.

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