Obvious strategies

I do not like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He appears to be a genuine nutcase, not just a hardline religious type or an ambitious dictator. Having said that, the policies he is pursuing make perfect sense for someone who thinks the US is out to get him and his regime - and why wouldn't he? US interference in Iran goes back a very long way, into the 1950's at least. More recently, the US gave money and weapons to Iraq as it tried to invade Iran.

So what are his choices? The US has described Iran as part of the axis of evil. There were two other members, both of whom were described as trying to acquire WMD. Iraq, under great pressure, agreed to allow inspectors in. It got invaded. North Korea tested a bomb, announced they were making more, and threatened to use them. It got sanctions, and then oil aid. Which result will Iran want?

Iran and Iraq fought a long and brutal war in the eighties, in which Iraq took territory from Iran (they gave it back at the start of Gulf War I, to neutralize one front). But when the US attacked Iraq, they smashed them. How do you stop that? With nukes.

So if the Iranians are not frantically acquiring nuclear technology so they can build nukes as quickly as possible if they need them, they are not paying attention. Even if they don't want them for anything else.

A huge part of the US army is currently tied up in Iraq, which limits US options in Iran. The longer that goes on, the more time Iran has to prepare, to shore up its position, to rally support in the Muslim world. And to wait for a US economic collapse, given the money Iraq is costing. How do you increase that pressure? Arms for the insurgents are cheap, easy, deniable, and can be sent across a long border to people who are naturally friendly to Iran.

Again, if they aren't doing that, they aren't paying attention.

I don't like it. Iran is a danger to everyone that won't do exactly what they want, as far as I can see. But what they are doing makes perfect sense - and it illustrates perfectly just what a bone-headed move invading Iraq was.

January 20, 2009 cannot come soon enough.