So, if we shouldn't have gone into Iraq, should we get out immediately? The short answer, unfortunately, is no. The "you broke it, you own it" policy applies here in spades. If we simply go home and leave Iraq to whoever is strongest, then the failure of our Iraq policy will be total. Iraq might be taken over by religious extremists allied with Iran; by another warlord of Saddam Hussein's ilk; by Al Qaeda sympathizers; by a homegrown Taliban; or by some unholy alliance of some of these. Or perhaps none of them would prove strong enough, and it would turn into another of the world's perpetual battlegrounds, destabilizing surrounding countries and trading arms and terrorists across the region.

We would have replaced a dangerous regime with a dangerous regime whose existence could fairly be blamed on us. And it would be clear that the west's attempts to stamp out dangerous regimes would not survive a determined terror campaign. It might not be true, but it would be clear to those planning the next terror campaign, so we would be guaranteed another one.

No, we need a moderate democracy of some kind. And that will need some support while it gets established. As much as it pains me to say it, George Bush is right when he talks of "staying the course". He has left the US and its allies no other option.

Whether any kind of graceful exit is possible will depend very much on the Iraqi people, and does not look like it will result from any kind of farsightedness or forward planning on behalf of the Bush administration. They seem from here to have charged in, guns blazing, assuming they would be "welcomed as liberators" and that everything would fall into place from there.

So now there are a multitude of groups in Iraq:
- Kurds who would prefer to be independent
- Shi'ites who may or may not want to ally with or join Iran
- Saddam Hussein loyalists
- Sunnis who are afraid of Shi'ite domination
- People who won't trust any administration backed by the US
- Extremists who want to keep the US's foot in the trap
- People whose friends and relatives have been killed or tortured by the US
- Those who just want a peaceful place to live.
- No doubt many more with reasons to hate the US or some of the other groups.
Many will belong to more than one group. How many belong to the "peaceful place to live" group, and how much violence the others are prepared to tolerate or inflict in pursuit of their aims, is not remotely clear.

We will need to stay in there, and take the casualties, and make sure that the majority who want somewhere to live get their chance, and the violent extremists get sidelined and give up. People who think the current casualty list is high should pick a war they've heard of and get their calculators out.

The Bush adminstration has done a stupid thing getting us in there, but that doesn't mean there's an easy way out. Sorting out Iraq will be a long and costly business that will absorb the US's attention for a long time to come.

May you live in interesting times.